Will North Korea Nuke South Korea?

Slavik said:
Given the absolute brainwashing these advisors have most likely been subjected to... i would think it would be the other way around in reality...
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Not really. Although it's been a couple of decades since I've been on the DMZ, the country is far too much into the crapper to really be much of a threat to anyone. Could they start something? Sure. But reality dictates that they won't. They need food and money coming in from China and the US too badly to screw that deal up.
 
I've followed the situation closely, mainly because my undergraduate thesis is the development of a framework for Korean reunification (you can already guess how many times I've had to redo x,y,z).

The issue I take with predictions that North Korea won't do "anything" is that Kim Jong-un is a largely untested leader. So far as the information we have on his personality, he is far more willing to engage the West (and South Korea) than Kim Jong-Il and arguably Kim Il-sung. Clearly, North Korea has not taken any action yet outside of bloated rhetoric, but there remains the possibility that the situation could escalate.

I doubt they will launch a nuke, however. They may be crazy, but they're smart, reasonably thinking individuals. If they fire a nuke at South Korea, they know fully well what will happen. General MacArthur's plan to blanket North Korea in a necklace of nuclear weapons during the Korean War is still very much at the forefront of North Korean military planning.
 
Kim Jong-un is reckless, even more so than his Father. As a spectator, I believe he has an inferiority complex and will use any methods necessary to prove that he is a leader. Little does he know that those who once supported his Country no longer support it. He will quickly find himself standing all alone in a great big room of Super Powers. :)
 
NK will not nuke SK without first establishing some justification. That's how these things work. Most countries (and people) will only act against others after the action has been made the fault of the other person. NK will need to create a flag (false or not) to justify action.
 
Biker said:
Not really. Although it's been a couple of decades since I've been on the DMZ, the country is far too much into the crapper to really be much of a threat to anyone. Could they start something? Sure. But reality dictates that they won't. They need food and money coming in from China and the US too badly to screw that deal up.
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I agree. Though I can see NK "accidentally" sinking another ship, or hitting South Korean civilians "by mistake" happening, just to gauge South Korea's and the US's action. I don't think South Korea will be as forgiving this time around.
 
North Korea has nukes? I've lit farts with more power than those firecrackers they call nukes.

These days people hear the word "nuke" and envision an entire city being wiped off the map when one goes off. This just isn't true. There have been natural disasters in recent years that have caused more damage than a small nuke would. It would take a bunch of NK nukes to wipe out Seoul. Far more than NK is even capable of producing.

I made these up for a local forum having a similar discussion back when NK set off another test nuke.

The top picture is a NK nuke hitting Seoul. A portion of the city is destroyed, but most of Seoul is intact and the damaged area can be contained by emergency services. That is, of course, if NK can even get a nuke to land where they want it to.

korea1.jpg



This is a single US Trident missile with 4 warheads also hitting Seoul. Basically, Seoul ceases to exist. And unlike the NK missiles, this one will hit exactly where they want.

korea2.jpg



I have serious doubts NK will ever launch a nuke. They are the epitome of a dog that's all bark and no bite.
 
It's China's show. Doubt they'll let North Korea nuke anybody. Depending on how really unstable North Korea is China will step in before there's a war of any kind.
 
I think the DPRK has capability to attach American bases, fleets and even the U.S mainland with ballistic missiles armed with nuclear weapons. Some of the their missiles can reach the U.S west cost and the city of Los Angeles could be a prime target.

The thread title should be will DPRK nuke ROK and the U.S.A !

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vijayninel said:
I think the DPRK has capability to attach American bases, fleets and even the U.S mainland with ballistic missiles armed with nuclear weapons. Some of the their missiles can reach the U.S west cost and the city of Los Angeles could be a prime target.

The thread title should be will DPRK nuke ROK and the U.S.A !

DY20121214110045875L0.jpg
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Yes, IF they can actually launch a long range missile without it failing shortly after launch. IF they can put a guidance system on board that would actually get it to where it needs to go. IF they could find a way to deliver a nuclear warhead from the missile. IF they could get this warhead to do a proper re-entry and land where it should.

NK is so far away from having the ability to send a long range missile it's almost embarrassing. If they wanted to hit Los Angeles it would be easier to try and pack a nuke into a container and ship it instead.
 
dangonay said:
Yes, IF they can actually launch a long range missile without it failing shortly after launch. IF they can put a guidance system on board that would actually get it to where it needs to go. IF they could find a way to deliver a nuclear warhead from the missile. IF they could get this warhead to do a proper re-entry and land where it should.

NK is so far away from having the ability to send a long range missile it's almost embarrassing. If they wanted to hit Los Angeles it would be easier to try and pack a nuke into a container and ship it instead.
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Falling short means landing on Canadian soil. We may be a laid-back bunch, but we certainly won't take too kindly to being nuked.
 
I think it's 90% saber rattling for the most part, but the other 10% is Kim has a duty to keep up the charade that his country is all powerful and shouldn't be messed with.

I mean they're apparently ok to torpedo South korean ships and get away with it (did they even get a telling off for that?), so at this point, I wouldn't want to guess what they have in store next

If anything, they'd probably attack (shell) south korea again.
 
Any country nuking any other country is asking for trouble, even if it's someone like the US attacking Pyongyang first. It will be universally condemned and someone will likely use it as justification to retaliate.

South Korea and the United States have more than adequate resources to conquer North Korea, and if North Korea decides to nuke someone, I highly doubt China will stand by them very much if at all. The only problem is that to be fair, South Korea is going to lose big time if they either conquer or reunify Korea, given how much more advanced their economy is and how they need to really prop up the North (however, they've been setting up a reunification fund for this specific purpose).

To be fair, and I've said it before - they're just a little kid asking for attention.
 
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