The same issue shows with all add-ons disabled on my live site.
I have a series of user group promotions to control access to certain items via Custom User Field Criteria (by selecting from a drop down in their "Personal Details"). Been working fine since I originally set them up a year back.
If I change one of these and then run the cron job manually nothing is applied.
Running the Rebuild User Group Promotions applies the promotions as expected.
Any thoughts/comments appreciated!