See, that's my point. Chris is suggesting that major upgrade works from 2.2 to 2.3 are 'unlikely'. This says to me that the base framework of 2.x isn't changing much, so either:
1. Chris has misjudged the scale of add-ons vs core (unlikely as he's seen first hand what folks are doing with Cloud)
2. It's new base functionality that is parallel to existing and doesn't touch existing stuff much.
3. It's new first party functionality in add-on form.
To me, a content management tool seems most likely - because I think groups would need deeper integration than a content tool would, at least to do it right.
But I'll wait to see, and no doubt renew my licence when it's time... gotta have the new shiny, right?