The US will go over the fiscal cliff
- Thread starter Digital Doctor
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BGL
Well-known member
If it helps, there is no "fiscal cliff".
We go back to the Clinton era tax rates which produced eight years of good GDP growth, record jobs growth and budget surpluses. Nothing scary there.
On the cuts side, the only ones we need to restore are:
1. Unemployment extension since we are have not recovered the jobs lost in the Bush Jr Great Recession.
2. Medicare/Medicaid reimbursements for MD and hospitals. Those need to go up 100% to make up for for $3T in Medicare/Medicaid cuts over last 30 years.
As far as the $500B in cuts, we could take all of that out of the current $1T military budget (no overseas bases, no invasions, no occupations). Russia and China combined spend $300B. That's plenty for US to spend.
We go back to the Clinton era tax rates which produced eight years of good GDP growth, record jobs growth and budget surpluses. Nothing scary there.
On the cuts side, the only ones we need to restore are:
1. Unemployment extension since we are have not recovered the jobs lost in the Bush Jr Great Recession.
2. Medicare/Medicaid reimbursements for MD and hospitals. Those need to go up 100% to make up for for $3T in Medicare/Medicaid cuts over last 30 years.
As far as the $500B in cuts, we could take all of that out of the current $1T military budget (no overseas bases, no invasions, no occupations). Russia and China combined spend $300B. That's plenty for US to spend.
dutchbb
Well-known member
Who cares about who looks better democrats or republicans? This isn't a game. Debt is piling up all over the world including in the US. The fiscal cliff is a joke. It's a distraction. It doesn't solve the debt and deficit problem and neither does any recent proposal.
Democrats want to give their voters what they voted for and 'stick it to the rich' which 1) doesn't solve the debt problem and 2) doesn't help the economy either. Republicans aren't talking about the important issues either. It's nothing but politics and no true leadership.
Not only should the US go over the fiscal cliff, spending should be cut with a chainsaw. People have no idea how bad the situation really is and what needs to happen to get a balanced budget. Either you take the bitter medicine now, or you get a much bigger problem in the future which could end up as a global disaster.
Oh and it's funny to me how people see causality between Clinton and the good times of the nineties, not realizing that Clinton had nothing to do with it.
Democrats want to give their voters what they voted for and 'stick it to the rich' which 1) doesn't solve the debt problem and 2) doesn't help the economy either. Republicans aren't talking about the important issues either. It's nothing but politics and no true leadership.
Not only should the US go over the fiscal cliff, spending should be cut with a chainsaw. People have no idea how bad the situation really is and what needs to happen to get a balanced budget. Either you take the bitter medicine now, or you get a much bigger problem in the future which could end up as a global disaster.
Oh and it's funny to me how people see causality between Clinton and the good times of the nineties, not realizing that Clinton had nothing to do with it.
BGL
Well-known member
Consider that Clinton fixed the problems created by 12 years of Reaganomics, got the US to budget surpluses for the first time in 50 years and did it with the tax rates that are set to return. So the tax rates are not the problem, US had solid GDP growth, record job growth, record budget surpluses for the eight years we had those tax rates.
Over last 30 years, Clintonomics worked, no deficits or debt. Reaganomics didn't work, record deficits and $14 in debt.
Go with what worked.
dutchbb
Well-known member
The short answer here is: you're making the wrong connections. More specifically logical errors and seeing the wrong causal relationships. I wish I could discuss this more thoroughly at this time (it's late here), but for now I will just say that things are not as simple as you perceive them. This isn't just about politics, it's about economics which most people simply don't understand. You can't just make these simplistic statements because you happen to like democrats more than republicans. You have to have a deep understanding of all the facts.
However it's my opinion the best option for republicans at this time is to just let democrats run things, stay out of it and let it burn so to speak.
BGL
Well-known member
Just stating historical fact.
Reaganomics based on cutting taxes to rich which was supposed to make up for resulting budget deficits with GDP growth. It never happened and Reaganomics failed spectacularly with Debt/GDP ratio going from 30% to 60%.
Clinton reversed Reaganomics. Raised taxes and US had a great economy with no deficits, budget surpluses and lots of jobs. Debt/GDP started going down again as it had done from 1945 to 1981, before the disaster of Reaganomics.
Bush Jr restored Reagaonomics, the current Bush Tax cuts, and US Debt/GDP started increasing again, deficits came back, debt increased and US economy tanked badly, the worst since Great Depression.
Historical fact over many years.
BGL
Well-known member
Except GOP knows the history also. If they let Democrats get back to Clinton era policies then US will recover and Democrats will get re-elected. It is why GOP is desperate to stop Obama from implementing his programs. They correctly fear that he will succeed in fixing problems Bush/Reaganomics created, just as Clinton did.
Fred Sherman
Well-known member
Absolutely. Take yourself as an example. You are so poorly informed by Democrat spin doctors that you don't even realize if the government taxed everyone making above $250,000 at 100%, that they still couldn't balance the budget and pay the debt. Its not a matter of taxation. Its the need for fiscal restraint that neither party seems to be able to display. You want Dems in control of all of government? Hell, that will make it so much worse. Don't ever give either party full control ever.
BGL
Well-known member
You live in an imaginary world.
Only the Democrats over the last 30 years under Bill Clinton balanced the budget, ran budget surpluses, reduced Debt/GDP and debt. They did it with the pre-Bush Jr tax rated which are about to return due to the extremist GOP minority in the House. Those tax rates are not 100%. Imagine that.
If anyone in the GOP really believed in balanced budgets, they would vote Democratic as Democrats are the only people who have a track record of realistic policies that produced balanced budgets over the the last 39 years.
Mert
Well-known member
It doesn't matter it is democrats or republicans are ruling. The world economy is on collapse and we all humans should act together to restore it to a balance or else a third world war is on the edge of our door.
first thing that should be done is trying to follow the utopia that we all shall live in peace as one. The money spend on guns should be reduced and guns should be reduced drastically. The revolution started with internet should be studied carefully and we should remove the boundaries to become world citizen.
Once we can achieve peace , we can then move on to correct the mistakes , otherwise humanity will unfortunately fail. As another world war can only end with a nuclear disaster.
first thing that should be done is trying to follow the utopia that we all shall live in peace as one. The money spend on guns should be reduced and guns should be reduced drastically. The revolution started with internet should be studied carefully and we should remove the boundaries to become world citizen.
Once we can achieve peace , we can then move on to correct the mistakes , otherwise humanity will unfortunately fail. As another world war can only end with a nuclear disaster.
LPH
Well-known member
The fiscal correction will not happen. The unspoken issues will be dealt with in a midnight deal - capital gains, corporate subsidies, and AMT. The capital gains tax is far more important than tax rates of a few percent. The military budget is also being decoupled in present discussions. The whole media presentation is just "look over there!" as the politicians realign things for the lobbyists.
Digital Doctor
Well-known member
The US has defaulted before.
jadmperry
Well-known member
Depends on how you define default. I disagree with the statement, but again, depending on how you define "default," I suppose reasonable folks could disagree. I am going with this easily searched/found link rather than scholarly articles (mainly because the "soundbite" is easier to get the gist of than the academic articles):http://www.cnbc.com/id/43140915/Has_the_United_States_Ever_Defaulted_on_Its_Debt
Even so, I am not sure any of this historical examples are even that helpful- I will go out on a limb and say that the world is a much different place than it was 80 or so years ago.
Not trying to pick a fight on this point. Just pointing out my reaction to this idea of US default having precedent.
Digital Doctor
Well-known member
Fred don't criticize my sources.
Last time we bet (my sources vs. yours) I kicked your *** huge. Not even close !
Republicans need to realize America didn't vote for them.
It's time to tone down their rhetoric and get some things done is Washington.
The Party of the 1% is dying - fast. They don't have the demographics left to win another election - ever. They either need to be less radical or just fess up they will never win again. The Republicans are hostile to 95% of Americans and America has all but figured that out. As opposed to attacking Democrats, you should encourage your party to try to win an election by being more centrist. Otherwise, look forward to punishing defeats from here on in.
I'm for fiscal restraint and Corporations / Wealthy Americans paying their fair share.
In 2016, Democrats will likely take control of the presidency, house and senate.
I haven't made up my mind fully on this prediction. I'd say it's 50% likely to come true. I'm looking for more evidence of increasing it beyond 50%.
Digital Doctor
Well-known member
Agreed.
If America was to default in the future, the ramifications would be so much more severe than the first "mini - Default".
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