To be honest, I can't really be sure. I've checked the code and the pruning logic looks correct. The only thing there that comes to mind is that the option was set differently at some time in the past.
That message is only returned if we get no edit history records for a piece of content. Normally I'd have to assume that it has been pruned, but the only other thing that comes to mind is whether an add-on has somehow prevented it from being inserted (but still triggering the edit count changes), though I haven't heard of that before.
Do other posts edited around that time have their history? (What about more recent posts? Try looking for one that was edited at least a few days ago, as the edit log pruning is done daily.)