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Windows smartphones to overtake Apple’s iPhones by 2016: IDC report

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Digital Doctor, Jun 7, 2012.

  1. Digital Doctor

    Digital Doctor Well-Known Member

    ORLY ?

    As of this year, Google’s Android platform has the global lead with 61% of the smartphone market, followed by Apple with 20.5%, RIM at 6% and Windows Mobile at 5.2%, according to IDC.

    By 2016, IDC sees Android at 52.9%, Windows Mobile at 19.2%, Apple at 19% and RIM down just a tenth of a percentage point to 5.9%.

    ... This could be true. But it's going to take a "near Miracle" for WinMo. It'll require Microsoft to take *MASSIVE* hits financially essentially taking huge loses on every hardware sold. And a miracle. I'd like to hear the research that went into this prediction.

    Please tell me the study wasn't funded by Nokia.
  2. Jesepi

    Jesepi Well-Known Member

    I was messing with a windows phone the other day and it was actually pretty surprising how nice the interface was. I could see myself using one without many issues.
  3. Sadik B

    Sadik B Well-Known Member

    Wonder how much Microsoft paid for that research! :p
    RastaLulz, ragtek and TheVisitors like this.
  4. SilverCircle

    SilverCircle Well-Known Member

    Except for the downright ugly (but functional) homescreen design, Windows Phone isn't exactly a bad OS - it gets a lot of things right (and a lot of others wrong, but this problem it shares with all other mobile operating systems).

    I'm a "Android guy" and will probably stick with it, but for a newcomer to the smartphone world, WP isn't the worst thing to meet there.
    Darkimmortal likes this.
  5. Neal

    Neal Well-Known Member

    I used a Windows Phone for a while and I was impressed. It was just the lack of decent apps that I needed that made me give the phone to the wife and I made the move to Android and iOS.
  6. Brandon Sheley

    Brandon Sheley Well-Known Member

    With windows 8 coming out I can see more mobile OS's being reported, but I don't see the windows phone overtaking apple or android.
  7. Gene Steinberg

    Gene Steinberg Well-Known Member

    IDC is thoroughly ignorant about anything that relates to the real world. In the U.S., Android growth is, in fact, stalling in recent months. 38% of the people who buy iPhones are switching from Android and BlackBerry according to another report.
  8. Chris D

    Chris D XenForo Developer Staff Member

    I can see this happening.

    BlackBerry is probably not going to exist for much longer, at least I anticipate it being at the bottom of the smartphone OS share at some point in the quite near future.
  9. BGL

    BGL Well-Known Member

  10. Gene Steinberg

    Gene Steinberg Well-Known Member

    BlackBerry is a dead end. I expect their technology might be sold off. But Microsoft is stuck. If Windows Phone and Windows 8 don't become spectacular successes, where is their Plan B? Yes, I've played with the latest Windows 8 public release, and it's a schizophrenic nightmare of inconsistencies. This makes Vista look good. Windows Phone seems all right, but it's way behind the iOS and Android platforms. Microsoft could get away with the "buy now, we'll fix it later" excuse with Windows in the 1990s. But nobody believes them anymore.
  11. Gene Steinberg

    Gene Steinberg Well-Known Member

    It's a curious comparison. Apple has one product line, whereas there are dozens of Android models from several makers. In the U.S., as I said, iOS has closed in in recent months.

    And to amplify my comment that Android is losing some ground to the iOS in the U.S.:

  12. craigiri

    craigiri Well-Known Member

    Fan boys.......

    None of us know whether Windows will even be a competitor. I have heard the stories about Windows and phones for about a decade now! When did they come up with their first mobile OS? April, 2000. 12 years ago!

    Ok, admit it. How many of you read or posted years ago about how Zune was gonna grab a big market? Be truthful now?

    How many of you didn't think the iPad would sell 75% plus of ALL tablets?

    It's fun to speculate, but please don't invest any money betting on this one! Never underestimate momentum - something MS and Windows have arguably lost. Virtually all of my "since Day One Windows fanatic" friends and co-workers now own iphones and ipads. The trend is Apples Friend.
  13. Gene Steinberg

    Gene Steinberg Well-Known Member

    True enough. And bear in mind that, since the iPhone came out, Microsoft has failed to demonstrate that it can build a competing platform. The alliance with Nokia seems promising, but now it's reported that existing Windows Phone smartphones (including the widely advertised Lumia 900) won't be eligible to upgrade to the next OS release. I hope it's not true, but if it is, it's another example of Microsoft being clueless about how to attract and keep loyal customers in the mobile space.
  14. Digital Doctor

    Digital Doctor Well-Known Member

    I know that the new Win Mo OS is not bad.
    That's the even worse news for Microsoft - no one wants their phones and they are pretty good.

    Anyone who could trust Microsoft with a Mobile OS is young or has a short memory.
    I used Windows Mobile for a decade and they just worked hard enough to kill Palm .... and then did nothing once the competition was crushed. And when Apple showed Microsoft how it should be done ... Microsoft had neglected their OS for so long ... and they were so behind their market share went from the majority to almost nothing. What a total failure !
    fitu likes this.
  15. digitalpoint

    digitalpoint Well-Known Member

    Considering last year IDC predicted Windows Phone would overtake the iPhone in 2015. So if every year you revise your prediction and push it 1 year out, it will never be false because it will never come... right? :)


    In fact, if you look at their new predictions, Windows Phone in 2016 is LESS than what they previously predicted it would be in 2015... and iOS is quite a bit more now in 2016 than what it was in 2015.


    Now me being a numbers guy... let's look at real-world analytics for my site... Visitors on a mobile device in the last year by operating system (Google Analytics started treating iOS as the operating system for iOS devices only a few days ago, which is why it has low iOS numbers, but high device numbers)...


    So even if you say iPads and iPods aren't iOS devices (which they are) and only count iPhone vs. all Windows Phone devices... Windows Phone has slightly LESS than 1% of the traffic that iPhone devices have on my site... 493,100 iPhone visitors vs. 4,851 Windows Phone visitors.
    RastaLulz and Digital Doctor like this.
  16. Digital Doctor

    Digital Doctor Well-Known Member

    Clearly it isn't a study.
    It's hopeful marketing masquerading as a study.


    Cool stats DP. Thanks.
    PM when Microsoft traffic is over 10 percent :whistle: ;).

    ******** lawsuits.
    IDC "studies" that are pure lies.
    The world is going to hell in a handbasket.
  17. craigiri

    craigiri Well-Known Member

    I have learned not to trust one word from the press and such think tanks. Not one word. I know as much or more than they do - because intuition and common sense is much more accurate in such things.

    It's amazing that they still get people to pay them for studies (or however they make their $$$).

    Ever notice that any given day you can find an article called "Will facebook kill Google?". Or "this company will win the mobile wars".......etc. etc.

    All designed to make you click and read. ALL complete BS.

    The first generation of the "mobile wars" is over......Apple won and Android placed 2nd. I say that because Android is not very profitable, and you can often "succeed" by giving stuff away. In terms of the actual profits made from the mobile space, my guess is that Apple is 50X what Android represents....and that, in this case, is what counts.

    Anything can happen in the future. But momentum is very important! PHP is also likely to be succeeded by something else someday. But when?
  18. digitalpoint

    digitalpoint Well-Known Member

    I've not seen it broken down by operating system, but I have seen it broken down by phone manufacturer (which more or less ends up being iOS vs. Android anyway...

    Apple and Samsung take 99% of all cell phone industry profits... With Apple taking the most (73%)...

    Chart showing the cell phone industry profits as a percent over time:


    Only 5 years ago, Nokia was taking about 60% of all the industry profits. :)

    RastaLulz and yavuz like this.
  19. Digital Doctor

    Digital Doctor Well-Known Member

    as if.
    IDC sucks hard.
  20. Digital Doctor

    Digital Doctor Well-Known Member

    By 2016 IDC should be out of business.

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