Thanks Mike, I know this falls outside Xenforo's responsibilities, so I'm very appreciative. Thanks for the tip on the IPN log, I didn't know it even existed!
It seems the problem is, after changing the monthly sub's dollar amount more than a year ago, some old sub renewals (at the old dollar amount) are suddenly failing with "Invalid payment amount". But other old subs with the old dollar amount go through just fine. Weird...
For a failed monthly renewal, everything is fine on the PayPal IPN log for the transaction, but on Xenforo it says:
Action:Error: Invalid payment amount
User:Unknown Account<p>Only log entries that involve a successful payment will be attached to a user and user upgrade.</p>Upgrade:Unknown UpgradeDate:Yesterday at 3:02 AM