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Agreed.  I always try to use wget to retrieve packages rather than download here, then upload via FTP.  As I see it though, the only way to check for a license would be for the user to enter customer user ID and password before the upgrade process would begin.

At our host (which has a PHP "wrapper" to run PHP files as the account's user, vs. user "nobody"), I was able to set it up so Wordpress could upgrade itself, and its plugins, using its built-in upgrade utility.  It's activated by a couple of clicks.  I realize with licensing that this would be difficult with XF, but it certainly would keep upgrades simple.   (And I would avoid putting them off...  )