The Demise of the United States is Inevitable

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because the people that come up with these percentages count kids that don't have jobs, house hold pets and farm animals ;)
Wrong, my friend. 46% of American households do not pay taxes. In terms of taxpayer population, that equates to 52%, since the lower incomes brackets tend to have more than one generation under the same roof. Those numbers come straight from The Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. Thats about as non-partisan as it gets.

My point is when the majority pay no taxes, but vote for politicians who create tax policy, those politicians will always raise taxes on the minority. The problem with that is they kill off investment and business growth, which lowers the tax base and increases the percentage that don't pay. Eventually it fails under its own weight.

Without drastic action, which we see our government is incapable of taking, we're already past the tipping point. It has nothing to do with right/left or republican/democrat. Neither party has the will to cut government spending, they merely differ on what they'll spend like drunken sailors on.

Here are the numbers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

General government revenue (% of GDP) for United States in year 2010 is 30.533 %. Revenue consists of taxes, social contributions, grants receivable, and other revenue. Revenue increases government?s net worth, which is the difference between its assets and liabilities (GFSM 2001, paragraph 4.20). Note: Transactions that merely change the composition of the balance sheet do not change the net worth position, for example, proceeds from sales of nonfinancial and financial assets or incurrence of liabilities.

General government total expenditure (% of GDP) for United States in year 2010 is 41.118 %. Total expenditure consists of total expense and the net acquisition of nonfinancial assets. Note: Apart from being on an accrual basis, total expenditure differs from the GFSM 1986 definition of total expenditure in the sense that it also takes the disposals of nonfinancial assets into account.

Total Government Net Lending/ Borrowing (% of GDP) for United States in year 2010 is -10.586 %.

Total Government Gross Debt (% of GDP) for United States in year 2010 is 91.552 %. Gross debt consists of all liabilities that require payment or payments of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor at a date or dates in the future. This includes debt liabilities in the form of SDRs, currency and deposits, debt securities, loans, insurance, pensions and standardized guarantee schemes, and other accounts payable. Thus, all liabilities in the GFSM 2001 system are debt, except for equity and investment fund shares and financial derivatives and employee stock options. Debt can be valued at current market, nominal, or face values (GFSM 2001, paragraph 7.110).

Ready for the kicker?

Debt Interest Payments (% of GDP) for United States in year 2010 is -8.876 %. Primary net lending/borrowing is net lending (+)/borrowing (?) plus net interest payable/paid (interest expense minus interest revenue).

Lets say we cut the federal budget by 20% across the board. What does it get us? 10.5% of that is already over budget. 8.8% still goes to paying interest on the debt. Only 0.7% would go towards paying down the debt!

For the US to get out of debt in 10 years, we would have to cut spending by 30%, almost 1/3 of the budget. Neither party has the courage to do that. The American people don't have the backbone for such an austerity program. This is a country that has a sense of entitlement, not sacrifice.

Its not political, its cultural. We are the modern Roman Empire, grown bloated and fat, collapsing under the weight of our own arrogance. The answer is always the same - let someone who has more than me pay more.

Here's the reality for "the rich need to pay more" crowd: you can tax everyone who makes more than $250K/year at 100% and with our current rate of spending, you still won't pay down the debt in 100 years.

its not a revenue problem, its a spending problem. Until we stop thinking we're the greatest nation on Earth and realize that we're nothing more than Greece, supersized, we'll continue to be screwed. Until we stop trying to solve this with politics and start solving with actual mathematics, we're doomed. I personally don't think we have the capacity. My grandfather's generation was called the Greatest Generation. I have no desire to know what history calls ours. There are coffee cups, zippy cups and dixie cups. I'm pretty sure we'll be the Fa cups.
 
lol.. Fred, I personally don't know anyone that has a JOB and owns a house that doesn't pay taxes. Let me guess, you know 100's of people that have jobs and own houses that don't pay taxes right? (to support your argument) Like I said (in humor) those numbers are skewed IMO. Ya, I know there are people that are supposed to pay taxes and don't and I also know that there are people that have jobs and get paid, but don't make enough to have to pay taxes by federal law.. but there is no way in hell that 46% of house holds don't pay taxes. If that's the case, then half the people that we know would fall into that. And can you seriously without fibbing one bit say that half the people you know don't pay taxes.. HALF (when I know NONE), do you personally know ANY (and if you do, please explain their situation).
 
Guess I'm in the minority. I have a house and pay income tax.
I think those in higher income brackets have the money to pay accountants to find every allowable deduction there is. And sometimes questionable deductions.
I don't have that luxury. It's just me an TurboTax.
 
So a country's demise can be predicted by the amount of revenues collected by governments from taxes, and their foreign debt... how interesting...

The UK must be already in flames then, with a whopping debt estimated at 400% of their GDP. Wonder if they can raise taxes even more to pay for it? lol
 
lol.. Fred, I personally don't know anyone that has a JOB and owns a house that doesn't pay taxes. Let me guess, you know 100's of people that have jobs and own houses that don't pay taxes right? (to support your argument) Like I said (in humor) those numbers are skewed IMO. Ya, I know there are people that are supposed to pay taxes and don't and I also know that there are people that have jobs and get paid, but don't make enough to have to pay taxes by federal law.. but there is no way in hell that 46% of house holds don't pay taxes. If that's the case, then half the people that we know would fall into that. And can you seriously without fibbing one bit say that half the people you know don't pay taxes.. HALF (when I know NONE), do you personally know ANY (and if you do, please explain their situation).

Who We Are

The Tax Policy Center is a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. The Center is made up of nationally recognized experts in tax, budget, and social policy who have served at the highest levels of government.
What We Do


TPC provides timely, accessible analysis and facts about tax policy to policymakers, journalists, citizens, and researchers.
Overview of the Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model

A large-scale microsimulation model of the U.S. federal tax system produces the Tax Policy Center’s revenue and distribution estimates. The model we have developed is similar to those used by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), and the Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis (OTA).

The model is based on data from the public-use file (PUF) produced by the Statistics of Income (SOI) Division of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The PUF contains 150,047 records with detailed information from federal individual income tax returns filed in the calendar year. Additional information on demographics and sources of income that are not reported on tax returns is obtained through a constrained statistical match of the public-use file with the Current Population Survey (CPS) of the U.S. Census Bureau. The statistical match with the CPS also generates a sample of individuals who do not file income tax returns ("non-filers"). By combining the dataset of filers from the PUF (augmented by demographic and other information from the CPS) with the dataset of non-filers generated by the statistical match with the CPS, we can carry out distribution analysis on the entire population rather than just the segment that files individual income tax returns.

After comparing their statistical modeling based on government data with your "I personally don't know anyone" methodology, I thought it was best to forward them your contact information so that you could help correct the flaws in their data.

:confused:
 
Whatever the reason a percentage of people is not paying federal taxes, tax revenues have held steady at 15%-20% of GDP since 1945....

What a sharp contrast with countries like the UK... Tax revenues have held steady at about 35% of GDP since 1945. The highest individual, and corporate taxes in the EU, and OECD....

Big governments are the culprits, not who is and who isn't paying taxes....
 
After comparing their statistical modeling based on government data with your "I personally don't know anyone" methodology, I thought it was best to forward them your contact information so that you could help correct the flaws in their data.

:confused:

Still waiting on how many people you personally know Fred that don't pay taxes that have jobs and own a house (and what their situation is). Hell, anyone that lives here in the US that knows of anyone with a Job and a House that doesn't pay taxes, feel free to chime in and share the story on why they don't..
 
I think that much of the problem is that companies outsource too much - this in turn inspires imports of products overseas. We need more "made in america" labels, and more jobs in america.
 
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probably one of the many reasons the debt is al time high
 
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probably one of the many reasons the debt is al time high

:LOL:

That'll be one of the many reasons. There's simply to many factors to post why not just America but why many other countries are in economical decline. People want stuff cheaper, the countries of origin can't compete with cheap labor so the outsourcing whom companies are certainly guilty of are only catering for the consumers whom are all to willing to buy cheaper products. Who's really to blame? Not just the companies, people in government that much I would say.
 
:LOL:

That'll be one of the many reasons. There's simply to many factors to post why not just America but why many other countries are in economical decline. People want stuff cheaper, the countries of origin can't compete with cheap labor so the outsourcing whom companies are certainly guilty of are only catering for the consumers whom are all to willing to buy cheaper products. Who's really to blame? Not just the companies, people in government that much I would say.
You're on the right track... there are a lot reasons why we're the economic mess we're in, but the tax and regulatory policies put enacted by our leaders are certainly part of it.

Consider this little bit of trivia: When Richard Nixon left office in 1974 the Federal Register (where the U.S. government publishes all current and proposed regulations) contained just over 29,000 pages. It ballooned to roughly 58,000 pages under Ford, and to nearly 73,000 pages under Carter. Under Ronald Reagan it shrank to roughly 55,000 pages, since then it has grown steadily to over 79,000 pages at the end George W. Bush’s term.

The costs of complying with all those regulations represents a "stealth tax" on our economy that, by some estimates, exceeds $1.1 trillion a year. Add to that the effects of the Federal Reserve trying micromanage the economy through monetary policy and/or the Federal Government trying to micromanage or socially engineer the housing market* it's not hard to see that Washington is a big part of the problem.

*Read Architects of Ruin: How big government liberals wrecked the global economy—and how they will do it again if no one stops them by Peter Schweizer. He tries a little to hard pin the blame solely on liberals, there were/are plenty of supposedly conservative policy makers who just as responsible.
 
Wrong, my friend. 46% of American households do not pay taxes.
Show me the data.

My point is when the majority pay no taxes, but vote for politicians who create tax policy, those politicians will always raise taxes on the minority. The problem with that is they kill off investment and business growth, which lowers the tax base and increases the percentage that don't pay. Eventually it fails under its own weight.

There is almost zero chance raising taxes will inhibit job growth.
That's Republican propaganda.

Prediction: I think the way the Republicans are behaving now is going to haunt them in 2012.
 
Show me the data.
I did.

There is almost zero chance raising taxes will inhibit job growth.
That's Republican propaganda.
Where is yours?

Prediction: I think the way the Republicans are behaving now is going to haunt them in 2012.
Side bet? The loser has to post a youtube video of themselves singing this:

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