I am a futurist.
I'm not saying they won't make many billions of dollars per year.
I'm saying their best days are past.
They may have perfected their OS, but it is too late to matter. Their video game systems have lost money since the beginning, and their world processor??? Well, the classrooms and many of the offices of the future will have ipads - without MS Word. Look at the stats regarding adoption of gmail and google docs in education, business and government. Do you think that chart is going to stop going up? Every one of those is a former MS customer...each and every one.
As far as home users, 80% of the people who have Windows (or mac, for that matter) computers don't need them - they need a ipad (maybe with a keyboard) or a nice android large screen phone or chromebook.
Obviously I'm making an educated guess - but it is based on watching PC's take over from Wang and Lanier computers (1978-84) and everything since. Also, much of it is based on actual statistics, not on guesses (look at ipad and phone sales!).....
Need I mention the cloud? That works against MS.
So, ALL these things are working against them, whereas before every single thing was aligned in their favor. That's my point. They may be able to reinvent themselves...but history shows it to be doubtful. Even the most successful historic company, IBM, pretty much died in comparison to what they were before. That is, today it would not hardly matter if they existed, whereas before they were the #1 and key player in computing.
Consoles are generally always lost money, however they make the money back on accessories, services and games, and XBOX has done well with all of the above. They've also come out on-top with consoles, beating Sony (Though I hope they make a comeback with Orbis), and Nintendo.
Adoption of gmail doesn't inversely effect Microsoft, as Outlook works with GMail. GDocs is generally adopted by small business, and not major corporations or government entities. Education uses Google Apps, though they still suggest using Office for compatibility. Microsoft mostly targets corporate and government as that is where money is, and that probably will not change due to bugs between GDoc and Office.
Where do you get this 80% from? iPads, smartphones and even Chromebooks cannot replace a desktop or a laptop. There are just to many things that are impossible to do, especially when it requires productivity. You cannot game (Diablo III, Guild Wars 2 etc) on any of the above mentioned devices, and you cannot design with them. Typing on them is also fairly horrible, even with a keyboard due to how cramped they are (I have a Transformer Prime with the doc, and I still typing on a regular keyboard).
Microsoft has had cloud services for several years: Micorosft Azure, Microsoft Mesh (Defunct iirc and now Skyline), Microsoft Skyline (Cloud storage), and even Microsoft Office which is online and free. They have other services as well and they are widely used, just in certain niches.
IBM now focuses on super computing, and has shown off incredible technology throughout the last 5 years. While they're not as 'big' as they were before, their focus has changed and they remain successful.
Consoles?
"
April 19: Microsoft Corp. says it shipped 1.4 million Xbox 360 consoles during the first three months of the year, about half of the 2.7 million shipped a year earlier."
1/2? That is unheard of. I have followed the Xbox since day one - the best system out there, but MS has lost money on it from the start. It cost them more to build them then they sell for.....now they are selling 1/2 as many!
Phones?
My web site stats show the percentage of MS phones being used is almost immeasurable. While I agree that is likely to go up, I would not bet on it hitting any particular point. That is, they may get 2% of the market, they may get 10%, but they are not going to hit the 30 or 40% or higher that Android or Apple is. IMHO, at least.
All of the above is best guess. MS is not going out of business. But their relevance has faded. Applying the test "would the world be pretty much the same today if NO MS products or OS was available", I'd say the chart heads downwards....less and less reliant on them each month. The trend is your friend.
Let's put it this way. Their stock, which represents the company, is not going to make any new millionaires.
Read the response for the previous quote, I explain how console vendors do things.
WP7 is pretty much a joke, as they've got very little support from OEM (And the ones that they do have support from were forced into it, so they do not put much effort into it), carriers (Who will not back a sinking boat), developers (Due to low adoption), however they have quite a bit of hype with consumers, who want to see new things. They've made so bad choices, such as the low-end hardware, and now with the next version not having an upgrade path, but when Windows 8 comes out, chances are they'll take a significant part of the market.
You're right, it's unlikely that anyone will become a millionaire from investing in their stock (Most people do not become millionaires from investing in existing companies stock anyways, especially when they're as established as Microsoft unless they pull an Apple).
More news from today....
"
Apple‘s (
AAPL)
iOS operating system and
Google‘s (
GOOG)
Android operating system, combined, made up 80% of the 152.3 million smartphones shipped in Q1 of this year"
"the combined share has risen from 54.4% a year earlier"
"
Microsoft‘s (
MSFT) “
Windows Phone” was at 2.2%, down from 2.6% a year earlier."
The trend is your friend.
As far as the cloud not being for everyone, I agree! Ipads and smartphones are not for everyone either. The point here is that MS previously was able to sell OS's, Apps and other stuff to each and every computer user in the world (or a vast percentage of them). Now their "market share" in that same metric is declining quickly with nothing on the horizon to replace it.
MS is not going to go extinct - just become less and less relevant to most people. That is not what businesses aspire to.
WP7 is unlikely to ever beat Android or iOS, and can only really compete when Windows 8 comes out. Then they'll have to compete on features, specs (They're very lacking currently), and get more app developers to release apps before they can be successful.
They're still a relevant company. Pretty much every home computer is still Microsoft, most houses own a XBOX, most houses use Mirosoft accessories (Mice/keyboards) as they're the most ergonomic and most computers have Microsoft Office, even Macs.
The only things tablets and smartphones can replace are the day to day tasks, and only to a minor degree. If I have to write up a large email, I'm going on my desktop. If I'm going to search the internet, and it requires a lot of detailed searches, I'm using my desktop. If I need to take notes and it is more than a few lines, I'll go on my desktop. They can only replace minor tasks, and are unlikely to replace anything big anytime soon.
While the trend is that Microsoft isn't doing well in
mobile, the hype is surrounding Windows 8, and even diehard iOS and Android fanboys are interested in what Microsoft can do with it. Microsoft is still one of the most innovative companies, they just do not release most of the technology to consumers and keep it privately for testing.
I'm not responding anymore after this.
